The Canadiens won more often when they shot less

Here is the number, before any explanation.

The Canadiens…	Games	Wins	Rate
were outshot	44	28	64%
outshot the opponent	34	17	50%
were even	4	3	75%

In 2025-26 the Canadiens won more often when they shot less. The gap is 14 percentage points, over a sample of 82 games.

Across the season they took 26 shots per game and allowed 28. They finished with 106 points, fifth in the league.

No, shooting less does not make you win

That is the easy reading, and it is wrong.

The likeliest explanation fits in one sentence: a team that leads gets shot at. It protects the lead, it lets the opponent come, it plays in its own end. Shots pile up against it because it is winning, not the other way round.

The table above does not measure a cause. It measures a consequence, mistaken for a cause if read too quickly.

What it actually measures

Two things, both more interesting than the first reading.

The Canadiens led often. They were outshot in 44 games, more than half the season. A team that absorbs pressure without ever leading does not win 64% of those games.

The goaltending held. Jakub Dobes won 29 of his 43 starts. Jacob Fowler posted .909 in 17 games. When you allow 28 shots a game and finish with 106 points, the net is part of the explanation.

The limit of the number

A shot on goal counts whether it comes from the blue line or the slot. The raw count says nothing about chance quality.

That is its weakness, and it has to be named: two teams at 27 shots have not necessarily played the same game. The measures that correct for this are chance quality and expected goals.

What stays true despite the limit: across 82 games, the Canadiens' shot count did not predict their results. In either direction.